HELLO, PENDULUM.

Editor's Note: This week, Peter discusses the latest global crisis and the ways it is about to wreak even more havoc and uncertainty upon an already struggling auto industry. In On The Table, we preview a new, specially-equipped Bentayga from Bentley – the Artenara Edition. And we have a new historic racing video, "The 1965 Bridgehampton 500." Our AE Song of the Week is "Manic Monday" by The Bangles. In Fumes, Peter presents the next chapter of his new series, "The Great Races" focusing on the 1966 Bridgehampton Can-Am. And in The Line, we have results from the F1 season opener in Australia and INDYCAR from Phoenix. Enjoy!  -WG

By Peter M. De Lorenzo

Detroit. After my two most recent columns, “The Drive Endures” and “Our Motor Memories Play Tricks On Us” stirred up a tremendous response, I thought I’d follow up with more thoughts on the subject. But then a not-so-funny thing happened on the way to writing my column this week: The Middle East blew up.

Yes, I know, everyone hates it when the world intrudes on our automotive passions – especially the manufacturers who are desperately trying to keep up with what’s happening – but as history has proved, it’s a sobering reality that rears its ugly head at the most inopportune times.

 

This week, it’s hard to get lost in the constant debates about old muscle vs. new glitter, guttural sounds of monster V8s vs. whispery whooshes from EVs, etc. (I prefer the monster V8 sound, thank you very much), when half a world away the sky is literally raining fire.

 

But such is life in the world we live in today. Chaos isn’t an occasional thing anymore. It’s now a relentless, unpredictable thrum that dominates our lives 24/7. There’s a quaint saying around these parts that if you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes and it will change. (That saying, of course, applies to other regions all over the country too.) But when it applies to the chaotic world we’re living in now, it’s neither quaint nor funny.

 

What’s the most obvious effect of the current action in the Middle East? Skyrocketing energy prices. Duh. Everything from gasoline, natural gas and the huge number of products that use petroleum are going to go up in cost, and dramatically so. We don’t live in a vacuum obviously, and even though the oil already in-country and well on the way was produced and priced at a previous number, the instant spike in prices is a time-honored M.O. by the oil companies. Bad news in the Middle East this week? The price at the pump goes up exponentially, right now. Convenient, isn’t it?

 

This development couldn’t have come at worse time for the auto companies. Still reeling from the environmental 180 by the current administration as well as the non-sensical and capricious tariffs decimating their bottom lines, these companies understandably feel constantly up against the ropes. They can’t count on anything when it comes to the current administration in Washington, and they’re watching their profits being whipsawed by the whims of the Dictator-in-Chief. This giant bowl of Not Good is a scenario that shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

 

Now, add to this combustible mix the prospects of sustained higher fuel prices – and if you don’t think these higher prices will last long, please – and you have an exponentially more complicated challenge facing these auto companies.

 

And here's another “duh” for you: EVs will all of a sudden be on the front burner again. Yes, those vehicles that the current administration so desperately wanted to legislate into oblivion are going to come roaring back in terms of consumer consideration. Who knows how much gas could go up to? But $4.00, $5.00 or even $6.00 a gallon (and up, especially on the west coast) is certainly possible. And when faced with those costs, consumers are going to give EVs a serious look.

 

Leaving the imports out of this discussion for now, as they generally have better prospects when it comes to offering more fuel-efficient vehicles, the Detroit Two + One find themselves in a Shit Show of gigantic proportions.

 

Of these, GM is best positioned to weather this storm, as they offer enough affordable EVs to consumers to make a sizable difference. That company’s “let’s keep a hand in the EV space” business philosophy is about to pay big dividends.

 

As for Ford, it is two years away from getting its “affordable” EV offerings to the market in any serious volumes. Yeah, I know, the company is saying 2027, but who’s kidding whom here? When is that last time the Dearborn contingent launched a vehicle on time? Anyone? Bueller?

 

And then there’s Stellantis. That company’s “Muscle Heads Rule!” overall product positioning looked good like, five minutes ago. But now? The boys and girls out in Auburn Hills are facing a very challenging summer to say the least.

 

Doubt that this scenario will be nearly as bad as I’ve stated? No, as a matter of fact it could be much worse. This “war” will have ramifications and repercussions for years to come.

 

Don’t think that EVs will come to the fore again? One thing about this business is that change is constant. With dramatically higher energy prices, people in this business better be prepared to duck, because that “pendulum” is about to take a giant, decisive swing back.

 

And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.

 

 

Editor's Note: Click on "Next 1 Entries" at the bottom of this page to see previous issues. - WG