No. 1240
March 27, 2024
 

About The Autoextremist

Peter M. DeLorenzo has been immersed in all things automotive since childhood. Privileged to be an up-close-and-personal witness to the glory days of the U.S. auto industry, DeLorenzo combines that historical legacy with his own 22-year career in automotive marketing and advertising to bring unmatched industry perspectives to the Internet with Autoextremist.com, which was founded on June 1, 1999. DeLorenzo is known for his incendiary commentaries and laser-accurate analysis of the automobile business, automotive design, as well as racing and the business of motorsports. DeLorenzo is considered to be one of the most influential voices commenting on the business today and is regularly engaged by car companies, ad agencies, PR firms and motorsport entities for his advice and counsel.

DeLorenzo's most recent book is Witch Hunt (Octane Press witchhuntbook.com). It is available on Amazon in both hardcover and Kindle formats, as well as on iBookstore. DeLorenzo is also the author of The United States of Toyota.

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Wednesday
Sep092020

WHAT A BEAUTIFUL WORLD IT WILL BE.

By Peter M. DeLorenzo

Detroit. Emerging from the Labor Daze, I am reminded of Donald Fagen’s words in “I.G.Y.” (see this week’s “On The Table” -WG):

“What a beautiful world this will be, what a glorious time to be free…“ 

Mr. Fagen’s idyllic musings from 1982 were remarkably upbeat, a vision of the future punctuated by hope. A few years ago, I envisioned the future as well – in 2030 – and it looked something like this:

I stepped out into the darkness, wandering around in a world that looked, well, remarkably as it looks today. I noticed a few stray autonomous vehicles doing their rote routines, with their blue LEDs indicating what they were. But they were – not surprisingly – insignificant, part of the thrum of a new reality, but only a bit part.

And as the darkness lightened slightly, I started to see the ebb and flow of traffic on Woodward Avenue. Some avant-garde designs were noticeable – aero shapes punctuated by their wildly diverse lighting systems – but they were clearly full-zoot luxury machines. Other cars were decidedly less adventurous, a mix of small- to medium-sized conveyances that really didn’t look all that much different from today. And yes, the traffic flow was dominated by SUV-like vehicles still, the American consumer having long ago abandoned any thought of going back to a typical passenger car.

The sounds were diverse too. A mix of BEV whine, hybrids and yes, full-on ICE machines as well. It was obvious that the prognostications of a complete transition to BEVs were dead wrong. The “grand transformation” was clearly a work in progress, with scores of people happily clinging to their piston-powered vehicles for two reasons: cost and the freedom of movement with no limitations. I did notice that as I walked past the local Speedway gas station/convenience store, a row of quick charging stations for BEVs had been added. They were empty now, but the gas pumps were already busy…

Has my vision changed? Only slightly. It’s clear now that the push to electrification is picking up speed, whether we’re ready for it or not. But if I see one more future electric vehicle from a manufacturer smoking tires or blasting down a drag strip I’m going to puke. I get it, with instant torque and a lot of power you can go crazy, but in reality, it’s apropos of nothing.

I see manufacturers going back to the old playbook that goes something like this: In order to get people to adapt to the coming electric future you first have to capture the hearts and minds of enthusiasts by demonstrating flashy performance numbers and compelling visuals. You know, sell the sizzle before real-world consumers get to the point of “How much is that a month?” But I don’t think that’s going to work like it did in the old days. Smokey burnouts have nothing to do with the performance of electric vehicles in bitter cold for instance, when the efficacy of real-world battery performance comes into play.

What really matters is range – still – convenience and speed of charging, a comprehensive infrastructure that works, and, of course, price. As a driving enthusiast, the high-performance aspect of electric vehicles is somewhat intriguing and entertaining but let me emphasize that word somewhat. It’s the day-to-day performance of electric vehicles in the real world that will determine the wide-based adaptation of them. 

As for the supposition that consumers will happily charge their electric vehicles at home and it will all be good? Yes, that may be true for a lot of people but it’s only part of the equation. Convenience and speed of charging on the road will be a major factor. And when it comes to infrastructure, what about consumers living in apartments who don’t have access to convenient power? That’s when the ability to go up to the local Choke ‘n Coke and get juice for the daily commute – with speed – comes into play.

But then again, the reality of the COVID-19 world we live in now and hopefully the post-COVID-19 world we will eventually enjoy is that it’s all different. GM just announced that it doesn’t plan on having salaried employees physically present until next July. Yes, you read that correctly, next July. I mean, what the hell? To say that everything is different now doesn’t even begin to cover it.

Talk to enough people and you discover that working remotely has become a strain. People are beginning to discover that the constant thrum of Zoom calls hangs over daily life with a din that never stops. And some are missing the personal interaction and the feeling of being present other than on a screen with your slippers on. (Not for PMD, of course. He has been working remotely since 1999. Only I call it for what it is: reclusive. -WG). 

Will it ever get back to people being present in an office? Without a proven vaccine, I just don’t see that happening. So, we’re in this for the foreseeable future. And speaking of The Future, I prefer to share in Mr. Fagen’s optimism. We will get through this and we will come out on the other side smarter and better. To dwell in The Land of the Crestfallen any more than we have to seems like a giant waste of time and energy.

What a beautiful world it will be, indeed.

And that’s the High-Octane Truth for this week.

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